So you want to know if now is a good time to buy DVC resale. I hear this question every single day, sometimes three or four times before lunch. And my answer is always the same: it depends on what you're looking at. The DVC resale market isn't one market. It's fifteen different markets, one for each resort, and they all move at different speeds. After 25 years of watching these numbers, I can tell you that reading this market is a skill. But it's one you can learn. Let me walk you through exactly how I do it.
The Five Numbers That Tell You Everything
When I sit down every morning and look at the resale market, I'm tracking five key metrics. These aren't complicated Wall Street formulas. They're simple numbers that paint a clear picture of where things stand and where they're heading.
1. Average Price Per Point by Resort
This is the number everyone focuses on, and for good reason. It's the headline stat. Right now in early 2026, here's a snapshot of where the most popular resorts are trading:
- Riviera: $138-145 per point
- Grand Floridian: $155-170 per point
- Polynesian: $140-155 per point
- Copper Creek: $135-148 per point
- Animal Kingdom Lodge: $108-118 per point
- Saratoga Springs: $100-110 per point
- Old Key West (extended): $95-105 per point
- Boulder Ridge: $118-128 per point
- Bay Lake Tower: $135-150 per point
- BoardWalk: $120-132 per point
But these ranges tell you almost nothing on their own. You need context. Is $142 for Riviera high or low compared to six months ago? Is $108 for AKL the floor or still falling? That's where trend tracking comes in.
2. Listing Volume
How many active listings exist for a given resort tells you a lot about supply pressure. When I see 80+ active Saratoga Springs listings, I know buyers have plenty of options and sellers need competitive pricing to stand out. When I see 12 active Grand Floridian listings, I know sellers have the upper hand because demand far exceeds supply.
High listing volume = buyer's market. Low listing volume = seller's market. It really is that simple at the resort level. The tricky part is that the overall DVC resale market can be a buyer's market while individual resorts are firmly in seller territory. Grand Floridian has been a seller's market for basically three straight years now.
3. Days on Market
This is my favorite indicator because it tells you how fast things are actually moving. A contract that sells in 5 days was priced right or priced below market. A contract sitting for 60 days is overpriced or has issues (stripped points, weird use year, short expiration).
Average days on market by resort gives you a temperature reading. If the average is dropping, the market is heating up. If it's climbing, things are cooling off. Right now I'm seeing popular resorts at 15-25 days average, mid-tier resorts at 30-45 days, and the value resorts with higher inventory around 45-60 days.
4. ROFR Exercise Rates
Disney's Right of First Refusal is the wild card in every resale transaction. When Disney exercises ROFR, they buy the contract at the agreed price instead of letting it pass to the buyer. Understanding how ROFR works is critical for reading the market.
When Disney starts exercising ROFR more aggressively at a particular resort, it means one of two things. Either resale prices have dropped low enough that Disney sees value in buying contracts back, or Disney wants more inventory for their own sales channels. Both scenarios tell you that prices might be near a floor. If Disney is willing to buy at that price, it's probably a decent price for you too.
ROFR exercise rates have been running around 8-15% across all resorts in 2026, with some variation. Riviera sees almost zero ROFR activity because Disney has restricted resale benefits and doesn't need to buy them back. Older resorts like Old Key West and Saratoga see higher ROFR rates, especially on larger contracts priced below $100 per point.
5. Sold Price vs. List Price Ratio
This tells you how much negotiation room actually exists. If contracts are selling at 95% of asking price on average, you know offers of 5% below list are the norm. If they're selling at 99% of asking, the market is tight and sellers aren't budging.
In the first quarter of 2026, I'm seeing most resorts in the 94-97% range, which means there's still some room for negotiation but we're not in a buyer-dictates-terms environment. Grand Floridian and Polynesian are closer to 98-100% because demand is so strong.
How to Track Price Trends
Looking at prices on a single day is like looking at one frame of a movie. You need the full picture. I recommend tracking average sale prices on a monthly basis for your target resorts over at least 6-12 months.
You can do this yourself by noting sold prices from broker websites, or you can use tools like the price comparison tool on DVCHomeResort that aggregates this data for you.
What you're looking for is the direction and speed of change. A resort that's gone from $105 to $115 per point over six months is in a clear uptrend. That's about 9.5% appreciation. Buying sooner rather than later makes sense there because waiting will likely cost you more.
A resort that's gone from $115 to $108 over the same period is trending down. Maybe you wait a bit and see if prices stabilize. Or maybe you recognize that $108 is already a great value for that resort and the trend is about to reverse. This is where experience helps, and I'll share some of what I've learned.
What Rising Prices Mean for Buyers and Sellers
When prices are climbing at a resort, it usually means demand is outpacing supply. More buyers want contracts there than sellers are listing. For buyers, this means you need to be decisive. Contracts won't sit around waiting for you. Make strong offers quickly. Don't lowball in a rising market or you'll watch every good contract go to someone else.
For sellers in a rising market, you have the upper hand. Price at or slightly above recent comparables and let the market come to you. Don't get greedy though. Pricing 15% above recent sales will still leave your contract sitting, even in a hot market. The sweet spot is pricing 2-3% above recent sales and letting the upward trend close the gap.
What Falling Prices Mean for Buyers and Sellers
Falling prices usually indicate either increased listing volume (more supply) or decreased buyer interest. Both can happen at the same time and they reinforce each other. For buyers, a falling market is your friend. You have more options, more negotiation power, and less urgency. Take your time. Compare contracts carefully. Make offers below asking and expect reasonable counters.
Sellers in a declining market need to be realistic. Look at what contracts actually sold for in the last 30 days, not what other sellers are asking. There's often a gap between active listings and actual sale prices, and in a falling market that gap can be significant. Price to sell, not to sit. A contract that sells in two weeks at $108 per point nets you more than one that sits for four months and eventually sells at $104 after price reductions.
Seasonal Patterns in the DVC Resale Market
After watching this market for a quarter century, I can tell you the seasonal patterns are real, even if they're not as dramatic as some people claim.
January-February: New listings flood the market as sellers finalize their decisions from the holiday season. Prices sometimes dip slightly as supply increases faster than demand. This can be a great time to buy for patient shoppers.
March-April: Tax refund season brings a surge of buyers. Prices firm up. Listing volume starts to stabilize as the January wave gets absorbed by the market. Competition for popular resorts picks up noticeably.
May-June: Families are booking summer trips and thinking about Disney. Buyer interest stays strong. This is typically when we see the highest transaction volume of the year.
July-August: A slight lull. Families are on vacation, not buying vacation ownership. Sellers who listed in spring and haven't sold may start reducing prices. Opportunity window for buyers.
September-October: Market picks back up. People start planning for next year. New listing volume increases moderately. Solid buying season with good selection.
November-December: Things slow down during the holidays. Fewer new listings, fewer buyers. But the contracts that are listed tend to be from motivated sellers who want to close before year-end for tax reasons. You can find deals here if you're paying attention.
These patterns shift from year to year. A Disney price increase announcement in July can light a fire under the resale market in the middle of what's normally a slow period. Don't treat the calendar as gospel, but do use it as one input among many.
How Disney's Direct Pricing Affects Resale
Disney's direct sale prices create a ceiling for the resale market. No rational buyer would pay more on the resale market than Disney charges for a brand-new contract with full benefits. So when Disney raises direct prices, the resale ceiling goes up too.
In 2026, Disney is selling Riviera points at $207 per point direct. Resale Riviera contracts are trading at $138-145. That's a 30% discount on resale, which sounds great until you remember that Riviera resale contracts come with significant restrictions. No booking at other DVC resorts through the points system. That restriction alone explains why the discount is larger than at other resorts.
For resorts without the Riviera-style restrictions, the resale discount from direct pricing typically runs 20-35% depending on the resort. That gap has been remarkably consistent over the years. When Disney raises direct prices by 5%, resale prices tend to follow within 3-6 months. Not by the full 5%, but they definitely move up.
This is why I always tell people that Disney direct price increases are bullish for resale values. Your resale contract appreciates (or at least holds value) when Disney raises the direct alternative.
How New Resort Announcements Move the Market
Every time Disney announces a new DVC resort, two things happen in the resale market. First, some potential resale buyers get distracted by the shiny new thing and shift their attention to buying direct at the new resort. This can soften demand for resale contracts briefly.
Second, existing DVC owners sometimes sell their current contracts to fund a purchase at the new resort. This increases resale supply temporarily. The combination of slightly lower demand and slightly higher supply can create buying opportunities in the weeks and months following a major announcement.
But here's the counter-intuitive part. Over the medium term (6-12 months), new resort announcements tend to be positive for the overall DVC brand. They generate media coverage, social media buzz, and general awareness. People who weren't even thinking about DVC start researching it. Some of those people end up on the resale market. So the initial dip often reverses into net positive demand.
Resort-Specific Market Analysis: Top 5 Resorts in 2026
Let me break down what I'm seeing at the five most actively traded resorts right now.
Saratoga Springs
Saratoga remains the value play. With the most total points in the DVC system, it consistently has the highest listing volume. Prices have been stable in the $100-110 range for most of the past year. Inventory sits at 60-80+ active listings at any given time. This is a textbook buyer's market. You can be picky about points status, use year, and contract size. Negotiate. There's always another Saratoga contract coming to market next week.
What to watch: The ongoing Saratoga renovations could boost perceived value if Disney refreshes the resort significantly. That's a speculative upside at current prices. Keep an eye on the dues tracker at DVCHomeResort since Saratoga's low dues are a big part of its value story.
Animal Kingdom Lodge
AKL has been trending slightly upward through late 2025 and into 2026. The savanna views and Kidani Village rooms make this resort perennially popular. Prices are in the $108-118 range with moderate listing volume (usually 25-35 active listings). Days on market average around 25-35.
This is a balanced market. Neither buyer nor seller has a decisive advantage. Fair offers get accepted. Lowballs get ignored. If you want AKL, don't overthink the timing.
Polynesian
The Polynesian resale market has been strong since DVC tower construction was completed. Prices range from $140-155, with lower inventory (15-25 listings typically). The combination of a beloved resort, Magic Kingdom monorail access, and relatively new deed expiration (2066) keeps demand consistently high.
This leans toward a seller's market. Buyers should be prepared to offer at or near asking on well-priced contracts. Waiting for a bargain here usually means waiting a long time.
Grand Floridian
GFV is the premium play. At $155-170 per point, it's the most expensive resale resort (excluding the effectively unresalable Riviera). Inventory is chronically low, often under 15 active listings. Contracts sell fast. ROFR activity has been moderate.
This is a strong seller's market. If you want Grand Floridian, buy it when you find it. Check the current listings frequently because good GFV contracts don't last.
Riviera
Riviera is the most complex resale analysis because of the booking restrictions. Resale buyers can only book at Riviera itself, not at other DVC resorts through the DVC exchange. This limits the appeal and explains the larger-than-average discount from direct pricing.
At $138-145 per point, Riviera resale makes sense for buyers who specifically want to stay at Riviera and don't care about exchanging into other resorts. If that's you, the value proposition is solid. If you want flexibility, look elsewhere. I covered the full breakdown in our resale vs. direct comparison.
Spotting a Buyer's Market
How do you know when conditions favor buyers? Look for these signals happening at the same time:
- Listing inventory is rising (more contracts hitting the market than selling)
- Days on market is increasing (contracts sitting longer)
- Price reductions are becoming more common (sellers cutting asking prices after 30-60 days)
- Sold prices are 5%+ below original asking prices
- You're seeing multiple similar contracts available (competition among sellers)
When three or more of these signals align at a resort, you're in a buyer's market. Take your time. Be selective. Make offers below asking and counter patiently.
Spotting a Seller's Market
Seller's market signals are the mirror image:
- Listing inventory is shrinking
- Days on market is falling (contracts selling within days, not weeks)
- Contracts are selling at or above asking price
- You're losing out on contracts because other buyers moved faster
- New listings are getting multiple offers quickly
In a seller's market, hesitation costs you money. If you like a contract, make a strong offer quickly. You might not get a second chance.
The ROFR Factor in Market Analysis
I touched on ROFR earlier, but let me go deeper because it's something most market analysis ignores. Disney's Right of First Refusal creates an invisible floor under resale prices. When prices drop too low, Disney steps in and buys those contracts, effectively removing supply from the market and preventing further declines.
Think of it as a safety net. Disney won't let resale prices fall indefinitely because cheap resale contracts compete with their own direct sales. If someone can buy Saratoga Springs resale at $70 per point, why would they buy direct at $195? Disney has a financial incentive to buy those cheap contracts off the market.
Tracking ROFR exercise rates gives you a sense of where Disney draws the line. When ROFR rates spike at a resort, it tells you that prices are near or below Disney's comfort zone. That's actually useful information for buyers. If Disney is willing to buy at $95 per point, you can feel pretty confident that $98-102 represents a real value.
What to Watch for the Rest of 2026
Based on current trends, here's what I expect to see through the rest of 2026. And I want to be clear that these are educated observations, not guarantees. The DVC resale market can surprise you.
Prices will likely hold steady or rise slightly at popular resorts. Grand Floridian, Polynesian, and Bay Lake Tower have strong structural demand that I don't see weakening. The buyers are there. The inventory isn't.
Value resorts may see some softness mid-year. Saratoga and Old Key West could see prices flatten or dip slightly as summer listing volume increases. Good news for value-oriented buyers.
Riviera resale will continue to be polarizing. Some buyers love the resort enough to accept the restrictions. Others won't touch it. Prices will likely stay range-bound until Disney changes the restrictions (which I wouldn't hold my breath for).
Disney direct price increases will come. They always do. And when they hit, resale values get a tailwind. If you're on the fence about buying resale, remember that waiting means you're betting Disney won't raise prices. That's a bet you'll lose.
Reading the Market Is a Skill, Not a Secret
None of this is hidden information. The data is out there. The patterns are visible if you know where to look. What separates informed buyers and sellers from everyone else is consistency. Check the numbers regularly. Track trends over months, not days. Understand what's happening at your specific target resort, not just the market as a whole.
Check the 2025 market trends recap for historical context on where we've been, and browse our current listings to see where we are right now. The market is always moving. The question is whether you're watching it or just reacting to it.
Got questions about a specific resort or want to talk through market conditions before making a move? I'm here. This is what I do every day and I'm happy to share what I see.
